Don't really know.....

I was watching this game show a few days back.. KBC.. A guy with 1 crore in the bank was attempting to win 5... The downside of course would be to lose all but 3.2 lacs of it.. and he had a lifeline which gave him two bites at the pie.. The problem was he had no clue what the answer was... As I looked at him trying to make a decision, i wondered what I would have done in such a situation...

Looking at it objectively
(i) 2 goes at a question with 4 options, a probability of winning increased from 1/4th to 7/12th... a probability of more than 50% that answer would be correct... More objective thinking.
(ii) If I win.. I get 4 crores... if I lose its just 0.968 crores I'm losing...

Random thought...
But wait... I've won 1 crore... I can fulfill most of my dreams with this.. why risk throwing it away... But if I win 5 then I really can do even better... what should I do...

Ego comes in now... If I win I will be the first guy to have won so much in a game show. people will know me. I will be famous... Come on there are so many cameras here.. the whole world is watching.. and I cant be so unlucky.. Come on i just need one out of the 2 to be correct(So now for me the probability becomes 50%)

Now this is where the mentality of a trader starts to come into the picture.
You can never make money without risking money.. Money makes money, so let me give it a shot. I'll take it this way.. If I win, I've done amazing money management.. if I lose, well I tried hard, I put my risk on the table, and unfortunately it didn't pay off.

But suddenly a story flits into the back of my mind, the story of a certain Mr. Nick Leeson.. He had all the risk worked out, one trade was going to make him and his bank a millionaire, and then at that very moment, an earthquake in Indonesia lead to Barrings Bank being sold to RBS at the royal sum of 1 penny.

And now the host starts saying, ' Aap kaafi duvidha me lag rahe hai.. Aap 1 crore jeet chuke hain.. Agar aap chahe toh aaap game abhi isi waqt chhod ke jaa sakte hain.' And really on the spur of the moment, keeping all the pros and cons and the fact that I didn't know the answer at all, aside, I would have said..........

Well I still can't understand myself yet.... Will be back as soon as I have an answer.....